You've got the basic distinction right. Polls measure responses from a sample of people, forecasts estimate possible outcomes using particular methods, and prediction markets reflect participants' expectations about specified events. Each approach has limitations, and the details depend on how the information is collected or the market is structured. You can explore election-related listings at , then compare the questions with polling data, methodology notes, and reporting from reputable sources. Pay attention to dates and definitions: a poll about voting intention and a market about who will ultimately win aren't necessarily measuring the same thing. Looking at several kinds of evidence usually gives a more balanced picture than relying on one headline or one changing figure.